Ryan Nugent-Hopkins got a late start to the 2013-14 season, but joined the party early enough to suffer through the long year with the rest of them. Hindsight being 20/20, it might have been an idea to wait until he was completely ready. That was one of the themes of this Oiler season.
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 11-12
- 5×5 points per 60: 1.98 (3rd among regular forwards)
- 5×4 points per 60: 7.30 (1st among regular forwards, 1st in NHL)
- Qual Comp: 4th toughest among regular forwards
- Qual Team: 2nd best teammates among regular forwards
- Corsi Rel: 5.6 (6th best among regular forwards)
- Zone Start: 62.5% (easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 53.6% (2nd best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 134/18 13.4% (2nd among F’s>100 shots)
- Boxcars: 62gp, 18-34-52 .839
- Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -26
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 12-13
- 5×5 points per 60: 1.29 (10th among regular forwards)
- 5×4 points per 60: 4.91 (4th among regular forwards)
- Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
- Qual Team: 4th best teammates among regular forwards
- Corsi Rel: 19.2 (3rd best among regular forwards)
- Zone Start: 52.0% (3rd easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 48.5% (9th best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 78/5.13% (7th among F’s>70 shots)
- Boxcars: 40, 4-20-24 .600
- Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -15
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 13-14
- 5×5 points per 60: 1.57 (4th among regular forwards)
- 5×4 points per 60: 4.49 (3rd among regular forwards)
- Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
- Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards (1st line teammates)
- Corsi Rel: 2.7 (5th best among regular forwards)
- Corsi for % 5×5: 44.9
- Corsi for % Rel 5×5: +1.1
- Zone Start: 58.4% (2nd easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 48.3% (3rd best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 178/10.7% (4th among F’s>100 shots)
- Boxcars: 80, 19-37-56 .700
- Plus Minus: -12 on a team that was -51
RE: 62, 21-42-63 1.02
Actual: 80, 19-37-56 .700
- HOO-DOGGIE. Your RE is pure comedy. I was certainly too robust in my prediction, but he is back in a good range. His 56 points this season ranked him inside the top 30 in scoring by centers. He has a bright future, and we have to remember he’s more than just a points-producer.
- He’s not much of an even-strength points guy. Nuge has posted more points with the man advantage, that’s for sure. Led the team with 20 power-play points this season (20, tied with Eberle) and was fourth in EV points (behind Hall, Eberle and Perron).
- Where does he rank among centers? Nuge was 13th in PP points and 31st in even-strength points among centers.
- Can you explain these advanced numbers above? Sure. Nuge played on the 1line, against top opposition but did get a nice zone-start push. It should be something he’s accustomed to, and he should make hay.
- And yet the numbers are putrid. It’s over. He’s a bitter disappointment. The numbers should be be better, but as we talked about in the Hall RE there was some kinda some kinda with the possession numbers. Nuge was better rel his teammates and he did put up 56 points—36 at evens. He just turned 21.
- When? Saturday.
- I don’t care! The season was a disaster! he’s ruined as a player! We should have taken Landeskog! He has 100 more points than Nuge! Landeskog has two more points than Nuge, in 17 more games.
- Renney knew what to do, but RNH is lost now. He’s Jason Bonsignore. He’s Forrest Gump. He’s Gilligan! He’s fine. Nugent-Hopkins needs to mature, but there’s a fine player here, a guy who can sustain this franchise for a long, long time. It’s very important to remember that injury impacted year two and the start of year three.
- Remind me of what he is. Nuge is a two-way center with elite vision and passing skills. He’s a cerebral player, and dogged in his determination. RNH is a thinking man’s center with great skating skills—he’ll play long after these wingers are done on that alone (although Hall could play forever if those wheels hang in). He has a sixth sense, some kind of intuition, that allows him to wait until the exact moment when a pass is best sent away. It’s a thrilling component of his game and one expects it’ll make him an outstanding 5×4 player for a long time.
- He doesn’t push the river, though, not like Hall. Hall is 17 months–basically TWO YEARS–older than the Nuge. That’s a crazy, crazy difference for two guys drafted in consecutive years. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just turned 21. He’s six months older than Nail Yakupov for crying out loud–he is really just a kid.
- He misses the damn net a lot. Yes, but he hit the net more this year and scored 19 goals. At his peak I imagine we’ll see 25-30 goals annually.
- And how many assists? 45-50 seems about right. The Oilers PP was mush this season and he popped 14 assists. That number could double during his peak seasons.
- Double? You’re on crack. As a rookie, he finished third in the entire NHL with 20 PP assists.
- So you’re saying we should expect him to peak out at 30-50-80? I don’t think that’s an unreasonable projection. If the Oilers become more of a high octane team—and let’s face it the power play should be better—Nuge will post the best offensive numbers by an Oilers center since Doug Weight.
- While also being a quality two-way guy. Yes.
- He sure played a lot. Yes, he did. Nuge’s 20:23 per night has him in the top 20 among forwards, just outside the top 10 among centers.
- Freaking Eakins. He ruined everything! Well, he didn’t have a tremendous number of options and Nuge was clear of Gagner and other centers. The numbers suggest the coach might have counted on Arcobello longer—like for the whole season—but it’s all gone now.
- What was the problem with the Hall possession again? As I understand it, Eakins was very stern in his lecture about turning the puck over in bad places. Hall took that to heart and the line began chipping the puck in often instead of carrying it in under control. They also had issues (this is the Dellow diaries now) with getting more than one shot during a sortie—something they managed successfully in past seasons.
- Alignment issue? I don’t know what to call it, sometimes I think there was a tug-of-war going on in that room, but I have no proof it’s the case.
- Maturity issue? Sure, but we might be talking about coach and player having the same issue. I don’t have enough evidence to accuse either side so it isn’t fair to point fingers.
- To hell with fair! This is a blog! Spit it out old man! Well, Hall-Nuge-Eberle were successful in past seasons, so the gumming up of the works happened after Eakins arrived.
- I knew it! That rat fink! Settle down. It’s a learning process, and Hall mentioned the other day that the group was pleased to have him coming back next season as coach.
- The hell he did! TAYLOR HALL: “I’m looking forward to having a coach coming back next year and really knowing what to expect. Hockey players, they like comfort and they like stability and having Dallas back next year, knowing what to expect, for me personally is something I’m looking forward to.”
- Oh what does he know?!?!?!! A lot more than you and me about what’s going on in that room.
- Why this song, Carnival? Caravan.
- Yeah, Caravan. Why this horn song? It’s a happy, uplifting song and about a period of youth when anything seems possible. The images coming out of the raddeo are compelling, the horns are powerful and the song rips through the air. The Band is The Band so that’s damn good too.
- What does it have to do with Nuge? Well it’s also about turning it up, and about being part of something strong, and it’s about bringing harmony. Nuge has been in the background—as much as a #1 overall can be—while Eberle and Hall have had their seasons of emergence. I think this coming year will be the year of the Nuge.
- And he’ll emerge as a leader of the Caravan? And bring structure and harmony when he takes the wheel. That’s the next logical step, but let’s not hurry this too much. Enjoy the ride.
- Geez, Van Morrison. Turn it up.